Better's Blinkist

What’s in it for me? Learn how to make excellent forecasts.

why groups of forecasters are more successful than individual forecasters

13 March, 2021 09:24 Share

Forecasting has certain limitations, but that’s no reason to dismiss it.

There is a theoretical explanation of why it’s difficult to predict such events. It’s called chaos theory (also known as the butterfly effect), and American meteorologist Edward Lorenz explains it thus: in nonlinear systems like the Earth’s atmosphere, even minute changes can have a considerable impact. If the trajectory of the wind shifts by less than a fraction of a degree, the long-term weather patterns can change drastically. Dramatically put: the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas.

13 March, 2021 09:25 Share

Weather forecasts are relatively reliable when made a few days in advance. Why? Because weather forecasters analyze the accuracy of their forecasts after the fact. By comparing their forecast with the actual weather, they improve their understanding of how the weather works. The problem is, people in other fields usually do not measure the accuracy of their forecasts!

13 March, 2021 09:25 Share

we need to work on accuracy and get serious about comparing what we thought would happen with what actually ends up taking place. And that means getting serious about measuring.

13 March, 2021 09:26 Share

Avoid using vague language and be as precise as possible.

voilà

13 March, 2021 09:26 Share

He said that, indeed, the iPhone might generate a lot of money; however, it would never gain a significant market share in the global cell-phone market (his prediction: between two and three percent). Rather, the software from his company, Microsoft, would come to dominate. And this prediction was, more or less, correct.

13 March, 2021 09:27 Share

Forecasts should also avoid vague language and use numbers for increased precision. Vague words, such as "could," "might" or "likely," are common in forecasting, but research shows that people attach different meanings to words like these. Forecasters should therefore talk about chance as accurately as possible, by using percentages, for instance.

13 March, 2021 09:28 Share

Keep score if you want to improve the accuracy of your forecasts.

how do we avoid horrendous errors like what happened with the WMDs? Clearly, more accuracy is needed in our forecasts. Let’s look at some ways of attaining this. The best way is to keep score.

13 March, 2021 09:29 Share

By using scoring, the team hoped to improve prediction accuracy

13 March, 2021 09:30 Share

Superforecasters break down problems into smaller units to start their analysis.

A superforecaster tackles a question by breaking down seemingly impossible problems into bite-sized sub-problems

13 March, 2021 09:31 Share

Flack ascertained the basics first, before looking for subsequent assumptions, which is precisely what an effective forecaster does.

13 March, 2021 09:33 Share

Flack ascertained the basics first, before looking for subsequent assumptions, which is precisely what an effective forecaster does

13 March, 2021 09:33 Share

Start from the outside, then turn to the inside view for an accurate forecast.

As every situation is unique, you should avoid jumping the gun and judging a case too quickly. The best way to approach any question is to take an outside view, which means finding out what the base rate is. But what exactly does that mean?

13 March, 2021 09:33 Share

A superforecaster wouldn’t look at details first. Instead, she would begin by researching what percentage, or base rate, of American households own a pet. Within a matter of seconds, thanks to Google, you’d find that figure to be 62 percent. This is your outside view

13 March, 2021 09:35 Share

The reasoning behind the outside view stems from a concept called anchoring. An anchor is the initial figure, before adjustments are made. If you instead began with the finer details, your prediction is much likelier to be miles away from any anchor or accurate number.

13 March, 2021 09:35 Share

Stay up-to-date even after your initial conclusion and adjust your forecasts with new information.

We’ve seen how superforecasters get the process going, but once you’ve made your initial forecast, you can’t just wait and see if you were right. You’ve got to update and modify your judgment based on any new piece of information

13 March, 2021 09:36 Share

Skillful updating, therefore, requires teasing out subtle details from extraneous information. Don’t be afraid to change your mind, but think twice about whether new information is useful or not!

13 March, 2021 09:38 Share

Working in teams can be helpful in forecasting, but only if you do it right.

At the very beginning, the research team shared insights on group dynamics and cautioned the online groups about groupthink. At the end of the first year, the results were in: on average, those who worked in teams were 23 percent more accurate than individuals. The second year, the research team chose to place superforecasters, as opposed to regular forecasters, in groups and found them to vastly outperform the regular groups.

13 March, 2021 09:39 Share

Another way to increase teamwork effectiveness is through precision questioning, which encourages people to rethink their argument. This is nothing new, of course, as great teachers have practiced precision questioning since the time of Socrates

13 March, 2021 09:39 Share

Precision questioning means getting to the finer details of an argument, like by asking for the definition of a particular term. Even if opinions are polarized on the matter, this questioning reveals the thinking behind the conclusion, which opens it up to further investigation.

13 March, 2021 09:40 Share

Final summary

Superforecasting isn’t restricted to computers or geniuses. It’s a trainable skill that involves evidence-gathering, score-keeping, keeping yourself updated about new information and patience.

13 March, 2021 09:40 Share

What’s in it for me? Get the lowdown on how to master hard skills with ease.

Ultralearning is an aggressive, self-motivated approach to learning that enables people to quickly and efficiently master difficult skills. By taking this approach to learning, they become ultralearners. Their feats can seem intimidating at first – think along the lines of learning a new language in less than three months. But the truth is that anyone can adopt the ultralearning strategy and see results

13 February, 2021 07:13 Share

Ultralearning is the smart, strategic way to skill up for personal fulfillment and professional advantage.

usher

13 February, 2021 07:14 Share

Ultralearning projects are self-directed, challenging and time-consuming. Just look at the ultralearning project devised by Eric Barone. Most successful computer games are created by teams of professionals with huge budgets. Barone, an IT graduate working as a theater usher, decided to create one completely on his own. Over five years, Barone refined his game’s mechanics through intensive trial and error. Along the way, he taught himself pixel art, music composition, sound design and story writing.

13 February, 2021 07:14 Share

Your ultralearning project might not land you in the pages of Forbes magazine, but it can bring ‘unrealistic’ dreams, like learning French or mastering watercolor painting, within reach. Beyond being a path to personal fulfillment, though, ultralearning can help you hone your professional edge. And staying competitive professionally has never been more urgent.

13 February, 2021 07:15 Share

As medium-skilled jobs are threatened by automation, workers need to adapt, upskill and retrain to stay competitive. In the new professional landscape, the most desirable workers have hybridized skill sets: librarian/data analyst, architect/textile designer, accountant/Mandarin speaker. Ultralearners can diversify their skill sets without taking time off work to pursue further education or qualifications.

13 February, 2021 07:15 Share

Metalearning is a crucial, yet overlooked, step for reaching a big-picture understanding of your field.

metalearning: the process of learning how to learn. The idea here is that you shouldn’t start by absorbing information at random. You should first establish how information is structured in your chosen field. For example, the writing system of Mandarin Chinese isn’t just a bunch of random characters. Instead, the characters are organized by radicals, which are visual markers that express the relationships between those characters. So if you were learning Mandarin, you’d want to start with organizing principles like radicals, rather than just memorizing each character individually.

13 February, 2021 07:17 Share

metalearning map by breaking your topic down into three categories: concepts, or what needs to be understood; facts, or what needs to be memorized; and procedures, or what needs to be done. Some projects, like learning a new programming language, will involve a mixture of the three. Working on that tennis serve, however, will mostly involve perfecting a procedure. Focus your energies on the most heavily-weighted categories.

13 February, 2021 07:19 Share

Simple mental strategies can defend against distractions and refine your focus.

The challenges don’t stop when you’ve found your focus, either. Once you’ve started your task, it’s easy to slip into ‘autopilot’ mode. You might feel you’re getting a lot done, but if you’re not fully engaged with your task, you’re less likely to retain new material. Combat autopilot with interleaving: deliberately alternate between materials and modes of learning. Ideally, interleave by tackling your project in short, regularly-spaced sessions. If you have ten hours in your week to devote to Russian, aim for five two-hour sessions rather than one ten-hour session. Focus on a different aspect or skill set, like vocabulary or grammar, in each session.

13 February, 2021 07:20 Share

paying attention to your mental arousal, or your level of energy and alertness. High arousal generates intense, yet narrow, focus – perfect for repetitive tasks, like practicing musical scales. Low arousal generates a more relaxed and wide-ranging type of focus, best suited to lateral thinking and forming connections, which are necessary for creative tasks such as music composition. Match your arousal level to your task – perform simple tasks when your focus is more aroused and complex tasks when it’s less aroused – for optimal ultralearning results.

13 February, 2021 07:21 Share

Taking the shortest route from theory to practice allows you to skill up smoothly.

Transfer is the process of learning something in one context (like a French class), then transferring it to another (like Paris). Despite its importance, formal education often fails to optimize transfer.

13 February, 2021 07:22 Share

Imagine learning French all through high school, then not being able to hold a simple conversation when you take a trip to Paris. It’s a common situation, and it all comes about through a failure to transfer. Transfer is the process of learning something in one context (like a French class), then transferring it to another (like Paris). Despite its importance, formal education often fails to optimize transfer.

13 February, 2021 07:23 Share

Ultralearners know to keep the path between their learning environment and their target environment as direct as possible. By doing this, they cultivate a quality of ultralearning called directness.

13 February, 2021 07:23 Share

How do you practice directness in learning? The most direct way to learn something is to do it. The most effective way to learn a language is to speak it. The most effective way to learn coding is to write code. This learning-by-doing approach is called project-based learning. It situates the skill you’re learning directly in your target environment – no transfer necessary!

13 February, 2021 07:23 Share

One of the most extreme but effective modes of project-based learning is immersive learning: total immersion in the target environment. A student of French who decides to spend three months in Paris is deploying an immersive learning approach.

13 February, 2021 07:24 Share

If immersive learning isn’t within your reach, use the flight simulator method by replicating the conditions and pressures of your target environment as closely as possible. If you can’t spend three months in France, for example, try a Skype tutorial with a French speaker.

13 February, 2021 07:24 Share

Whatever you’re learning, establish a direct path between your learning context and your target environment. Once you’ve done that, it’s time to drill down and perfect your technique, which we’ll look at in the next blink.

13 February, 2021 07:24 Share

Use drilling to hone your skills to perfection.

Crucially, you should never begin your project by drilling. Instead, use the direct-then-drill approach. To do this, start with direct practice, whether you’re writing code or weaving tapestry. Use this direct practice to identify the areas where you wish to drill. After drilling, go back to direct practice until it becomes necessary to drill again.

13 February, 2021 07:44 Share

For example, you may have a great grasp of the principles of accounting theory, but lack the Excel expertise to put these principles into practice. In that case, learning Excel would be your rate-determining step, so you’d focus your drilling in this area.

13 February, 2021 07:46 Share

How should you design your drills? That depends on the area you want to drill. Can it be easily isolated from the rest of your project? If so, try time-slicing, where you isolate one step in a more involved process and repeat the step until you’ve perfected it. If you want to perfect your golf game, for example, you could time-slice by drilling your drive shot. Or, separate your desired skill into different cognitive components and drill each separately – for example, in language learning, you could drill vocabulary, pronunciation or spelling.

13 February, 2021 07:48 Share

Why is transfer so important? What’s the interleaving technique

13 February, 2021 07:49 Share

Using challenging recall strategies is the best way to retrieve information you’ve learned.

There are two methods you can use to improve your retrieval rate. But be careful! One of them is far more effective than the other. The first is review: going back over the materials you’ve just studied. The second is recall: trying to recall facts and concepts from memory.

13 February, 2021 08:05 Share

There’s a reason we prefer review over recall and it all comes down to a concept called judgment of learning. Essentially, when we’re able to process or understand a concept without difficulty, we judge that we’ve learned that concept. Reading back over something we’ve already learned creates the impression that we’ve grasped this new information. That’s why we gravitate towards passive review strategies: they confirm our perception that we’re learning successfully

13 February, 2021 08:06 Share

But perception isn’t everything. Struggling to recall something in the short term means you’re far more likely to remember it in the long term. Experts call this desirable difficulty – the difficulty posed by recall is ultimately desirable, as it maximizes our chances of retaining what we’ve learned.

13 February, 2021 08:14 Share

The first is to test yourself on what you’ve learned using flash cards or, better yet, free recall: after a study session, sit down with a piece of blank paper. Challenge yourself to write down everything you can remember from what you’ve learned, in as much detail as possible.

13 February, 2021 08:14 Share

Another approach is to avoid making notes when reading – pose questions that force you to recall the answer. Instead of writing "The Battle of Hastings took place in 1066," write "When did the Battle of Hastings take place?" Every time you go over your notes, you’ll be forced to recall what you’ve learned.

13 February, 2021 08:15 Share

Elicit high-quality feedback to identify your weaknesses and improve your performance.

The first and most basic form of feedback is outcome feedback. This feedback can confirm whether or not you’ve reached a desired outcome. Imagine you’re giving a public talk and the audience applauds at the end. That’s outcome feedback. It can be encouraging, but it’s hard to glean any more information from this type of feedback.

13 February, 2021 08:16 Share

Informational feedback gives you more to work with, by alerting you to the fact that you’re doing something wrong. If you give a public talk and audience members walk out at a particular point, they’re giving you informational feedback. This kind of feedback is useful for highlighting problem areas and isolating your mistakes.

13 February, 2021 08:17 Share

When sorting through your feedback, focus on corrective feedback over informational feedback, and informational feedback over outcome feedback.

13 February, 2021 08:17 Share

How do you ensure you’re receiving enough feedback in the first place? Start by remembering to fail for feedback: if you’re not extending yourself to the point where you fail, you stop yourself from getting useful informational or corrective feedback. Pushing beyond your limits will elicit helpful feedback; acting on that feedback will, in turn, extend your limits.

13 February, 2021 08:18 Share

Smart, strategically-spaced memorization sessions ensure that what you learn really sticks.

The most productive strategy you can employ is to settle on a memorization system and incorporate it at regular, closely-spaced stages throughout your project. The key is to use a memorization system that’s both easy to integrate into your project and well-suited to the type of project you’ve decided to tackle.

13 February, 2021 13:23 Share

It can be tempting to commit things to memory in one burst. If you do this, you may see short-term results. For long-term retention, though, it’s best to avoid cramming. Make sure you space out your memorization sessions. But don’t space them too far apart – if you leave it too long between memory-building sessions, you’ll start to see diminishing returns. Ideally, make time for memorization a few days per week

13 February, 2021 13:24 Share

For more complex concepts, spaced repetition can be equally effective. Here, your focus should be on regularly repeating key processes rather than recalling information. To do this, switch out the flash cards for a refresher project: test your retention by regularly putting your skills into practice. You could even try overlearning: pushing yourself beyond your skill level.

13 February, 2021 13:25 Share

Pushing yourself to learn some intermediate formulas could actually help you retain beginner-level formulas more effectively.

13 February, 2021 13:25 Share

Cultivating deep understanding is the surest path to finding your intuitive brilliance.

. The technical term for this ability is intuitive expertise, and it can seem rather mysterious to outside observers. But there’s a perfectly rational explanation for Feynman’s flashes of brilliance: his deep understanding of physics enabled him to intuit unexpected connections and patterns

13 February, 2021 13:26 Share

Feynman knew something his students had yet to learn: it’s possible to progress to complex concepts when you only have a vague understanding of foundational concepts. On the other hand, it’s impossible to become an intuitive expert until you know the foundational concepts of your field inside-out.

13 February, 2021 13:27 Share

A challenging learning experience can lead to a deeper grasp of the subject. That’s why you should try and embrace the struggle. Resist taking shortcuts in your learning; if there are two ways to arrive at a solution, choose the longer, more involved one. Learning a few classic chess moves will probably improve your win rate in the short term, but a lengthier study of chess strategy is a better route to a deep understanding of the game

13 February, 2021 13:27 Share

Finally, deepen your understanding of core concepts by proving them for yourself. Look at the theorems, ideas and processes that expert practitioners in your field have formulated, then try and prove them or replicate them for yourself. You’re not trying to disprove those practitioners’ work; you’re trying to understand the procedure and thought patterns behind it

13 February, 2021 13:27 Share

Strategic experimentation lays the groundwork for true innovation.

Experimentation is ultralearning’s secret ingredient – the technique can take you from accomplished practitioner to true innovator. But experimentation can seem a little overwhelming at first. If you’re wondering where to begin, one technique you can use is to copy then create: emulate someone else’s work, then use this as a stepping-stone towards testing your own ideas.

13 February, 2021 13:28 Share

Another thing you can do to jumpstart your experimentation is to impose some constraints on it. This might seem counterintuitive, but limiting your creativity can actually help it blossom. That’s because working within strict limits can help you shake off your working habits and force you to try something new. For example, if you’re a budding artist or poet, you might try painting a picture using only shades of green or writing a verse without using the letter ‘e’: you might be surprised by how your creativity flourishes when it’s circumscribed.

13 February, 2021 13:29 Share

Final summary

Interested in taking on an ultralearning challenge to hone your professional edge? Before you commit to a time-consuming project like teaching yourself the basics of a coding language, make sure it aligns with your career objectives. Find a professional in your ultralearning field and conduct an Expert Interview with them.

13 February, 2021 13:29 Share

Want to successfully complete your own ultralearning project? Start by laying the groundwork: apply metalearning strategies and refine your focus. Optimize your learning by focussing on directness, drilling, retrieval, feedback and retention. To take things to the next level, cultivate intuition and experiment intensively.

14 February, 2021 00:30 Share

What’s in it for me? Learn how to fill that creativity tank.

You don’t need to be working a creative job to be creative. Creativity is a part of everyone’s life, whether you’re a globe-trotting rock star or simply someone who enjoys a spot of watercolor painting on a Sunday afternoon.

5 February, 2021 09:37 Share

The pressures and expectations of today’s workplace can stifle creativity.

To prove to your boss that you’re a viable creative asset, you need to be prolific, brilliant and healthy. Unfortunately, most of us are deficient in at least one of these areas, and because of that our work and reputation suffers.

5 February, 2021 09:39 Share

Furthermore, companies also tend to focus more on predictable outcomes and less on giving room for irregular waves of creativity, a tendency that takes a toll on innovative thinking. A friend of the author said that the creative types at his company refer to the decision-makers as "vampires" because they suck all the life from the room.

5 February, 2021 09:44 Share

Beware of the three "assassins" of creativity: dissonance, fear and expectation escalation.

The first assassin we must arm ourselves against is dissonance, which usually arises when a company’s purpose for action – "the why" of the company – is not aligned with the actions it takes – the company’s "what."

11 February, 2021 13:03 Share

The author once worked with a design firm whose creative leaders didn’t clearly express the expectations of the clients to the designers. Instead of a brief detailing the concepts underlying the client‘s requests, the designers were given vague cosmetic requests. This caused the work to suffer. When there’s no "why" behind a particular "what," the result is usually confusion and misunderstanding.

11 February, 2021 13:03 Share

A particular experiment demonstrates this well. People were first asked to imagine walking along a twenty-foot plank on the floor, and most of them were confident they could do it without falling off. They were then asked to imagine walking along the same plank, but this time with it suspended between two buildings 100 feet above ground – and most of them didn’t believe they could do it. In short, when the potential outcome of a particular action became frightening, people were less likely to think they could succeed. Similarly, many people are dissuaded from undertaking a creative venture because they fear what might happen.

11 February, 2021 13:06 Share

When you fixate on the outcome of a project, you may fail to see different possibilities. The higher your expectations, the more you become consumed with realizing them, letting everything else fall by the wayside.

11 February, 2021 13:06 Share

The key to creative insights is focus.

Now that we’re familiar with some potential creativity killers, we can move on to practices that’ll keep us engaged. The best way to do this is to stay FRESH – by attending to our focus, relationships, energy, stimuli and hours. Let’s begin with focus.

11 February, 2021 13:07 Share

According to neuroscientist Jeff Hawkins, unhealthy assumptions arise because our brains are constantly predicting what will happen based on our previous experiences. Though these assumptions are usually helpful, they can also be faulty.

11 February, 2021 13:08 Share

To define your work, the author suggests assigning four to six "challenges" to any task. The challenges can be anything, such as, "How can we make our brand stand out from the crowd?" or "How can we lower costs?" When you address these questions specifically, it’s easier to see where you should be directing your focus.

11 February, 2021 13:08 Share

Creative work can be lonely, so inspire yourself by forging strong networks and relationships.

Inevitably, introversion and isolation limit one’s outlook and thus one’s creativity, but this can be counteracted by the next part of FRESH: relationships. Author Steven Johnson says that the best ideas of all time were sparked by people sharing and collaborating. The more minds that are present, the more creative avenues will open up. In the same vein, professor Louis Cozolino said that we need perspectives from other people to keep our creativity fresh.

11 February, 2021 13:09 Share

The next step is to construct one-on-one meetings with other creatives, preferably with those who work in the same area as you. The aim of these meetings is to promote a healthy dose of competition between you and your partner that will push you both to be bold and innovative. The author sums this up with a quote by TV personality Diane Sawyer: "Competition is easier to accept if you realize it is not an act of oppression or abrasion," but rather a challenge to help us grow.

11 February, 2021 13:10 Share

Finally, the core team requires a long-term student-and-master relationship. Seek the advice and counsel of two or three professionals whom you look up to – people outside your company and from different industries and positions. This will broaden your perspective and encourage learning.

11 February, 2021 13:11 Share

To build strong relationships, there are three main strategies: start a circle, head to heads and establishing a core team. First, you must regularly gather creatives of your choice in an informal circle.

11 February, 2021 13:14 Share

For your creative insights to gain momentum, you need to strategically manage your energy.

Author Tony Schwartz says that if we practice good time and resource management but neglect our energy levels, our productivity will suffer. He adds that we’re most productive when switching "between periods of high focus and intermittent rest."

11 February, 2021 13:15 Share

During the week, try to balance out energy-consuming tasks, such as long phone calls, with buffers, such as listening to five minutes of music. Buffers can also be handy during the transition from work to personal life. You could, for instance, stop by a bookstore on your way home.

11 February, 2021 13:15 Share

The final step in managing your energy is to "prune" away the less effective activities in your life. In vineyards, vine keepers are always pruning new growth to ensure that the older, fruit-bearing parts receive the necessary nutrients. This same cutting back process is applicable to energy management. Every month, identify the least effective and most energy draining activity in your life, and then eliminate it.

11 February, 2021 13:16 Share

When you’re able to effectively manage your energy, you can be sure that your time will be used to its full potential. Once you master that, you can move on and see how to curate what you consume: stimuli.

11 February, 2021 13:17 Share

To maintain your creativity, you need stimuli that are challenging, relevant and diverse.

To maintain a healthy creative output, you need to make sure you receive a healthy intake of challenging, relevant and diverse stimuli – which is what the S in FRESH stands for.

11 February, 2021 13:17 Share

You also need to ensure that the sources are relevant – not only to specific projects and goals, but to the overall, long-term skills you wish to develop. One good daily practice is to seek out resources that encourage personal growth – such as, say, classes that teach a specific skill – and professional growth, such as trade magazines

11 February, 2021 13:19 Share

To help you manage your challenging, relevant and diverse stimuli, there are three things you should do: cultivate, process and experience.

11 February, 2021 13:19 Share

Make a quarterly study plan and allocate 25 percent to areas where you lack information needed for your job; 25 percent to what will benefit you in a wider sense, like educational blind spots and deficiencies; and 50 percent to things you’re curious about, like history or gardening, focusing on your passions, not your obligations. Then take notes on your insights, review them and see if a pattern emerges. You can do what Founding Father John Adams did and fill in the margins of books with your notes, as if reading was a conversation and not a monologue.

11 February, 2021 13:20 Share

Great creative work is not defined by the number of hours but by the quality of those hours.

Look at your time like a portfolio, not a slot machine; aim for quality over quantity. Time management guides are usually only concerned with you getting through your work. This resolve bears resemblance to playing the slot machine, where you pull the lever over and over again in the hopes of a win that may never come. But that doesn’t work if you’re a creative.

11 February, 2021 13:21 Share

The first step is to establish your idea. Most people, when they hear the word "brainstorming," think of a group activity. However, this mental exercise also works just as well solo. Note that at this stage we are neither considering current designs nor concerned with execution; right now, it’s only about coming up with new ideas. To start off, try giving yourself one hour per week to conceptualize new ideas. Look back at your Big Three for inspiration, and define your problems as challenges, as we did earlier. Make sure you keep a record of everything that happens in each brainstorming session

11 February, 2021 13:21 Share

The second step is to practice unnecessary creating, which refers to creating for the sake of creating, and not out of obligation to anyone else. It will get your brain in motion and actually clear your head, allowing you to be more productive in other areas.

11 February, 2021 13:21 Share

The author recommended that Robert rediscover his old hobby of watercolor painting. In the following weeks, Robert regained his enthusiasm for work, all because he started doing something for himself. You may feel like you don’t have time for fun activities anymore, but take the author’s advice and try to incorporate them into your routine. You’ll be sure to see the benefits.

11 February, 2021 13:22 Share

Final summary

Whatever it is that you wish to achieve, make sure that you give it all you’ve got each and every day. If you don’t, you’ll regret it in the end. A friend of the author once said that cemeteries are the most valuable land on the planet, as they are filled with unquantifiable amounts of unrealized potential and ideas. If you employ the practices outlined in these blinks and strive to consistently maximize your potential, you can be sure to "die empty."

11 February, 2021 13:23 Share

Originality is your key to a fulfilling career.

But what’s an original? In today’s context, originals are people who not only dream up novel ideas and shake up the status quo, but who also take the initiative to make their unique vision a reality.

25 January, 2020 11:32 Share

Putting new ideas out there requires courage and the determination not to back down when you want change to happen. The first step toward becoming an original is overcoming your fear of taking action and standing up for your own ideas. But how? Find out in the next blinks.

25 January, 2020 11:32 Share

Quantity leads to quality when it comes to generating great ideas.

Picasso’s entire body of work includes countless rugs and prints, 2,800 ceramics, 1,800 paintings, 1,200 sculptures and more than 12,000 drawings. And yet, only a small number of these pieces gave Picasso his success and status as an international art icon. In other words, when it comes to quantity and quality, you can’t have one without the other!

25 July, 2019 12:32 Share

Generating ideas, and lots of them, is the first step to unlocking your creative potential. But you shouldn’t see your brain as a creativity factory, pumping out original ideas the way cars are manufactured on an assembly line.

25 July, 2019 12:34 Share

Procrastination can work creative wonders when you use it strategically.

King’s speech is a fantastic example of the Zeigarnik effect. The phenomenon, named after Russian psychologist Bluma Zeigarnik, describes the way that our mind stays open to new ideas and insights, even after we attempt to finish a task and give up. Essentially, King’s unfinished speech left room for his brain to come up with brilliant lines. For great originals, procrastination is a key strategy. It allows them to make gradual progress while remaining open to a range of possibilities. Leonardo da Vinci is another example of history’s prolific procrastinators. He began painting the Mona Lisa in 1503, then abandoned the project before returning to the painting some years later. The Mona Lisa was finally completed in 1519, 16 years later!

25 July, 2019 12:35 Share

Admitting your weaknesses during a pitch will garner you more support.

For one thing, voicing an opinion that threatens to upset the status quo can be a threat to your business career and your network. A massive study conducted across nonprofit, service, retail and manufacturing companies revealed that the more frequently employees voiced their ideas and concerns to their superiors, the less likely they were to receive raises and promotions over a two-year period.

25 July, 2019 12:37 Share

Make radical ideas familiar by getting them out there often and finding common points of reference.

One of these is the mere exposure effect, where repeating yourself will give others time to warm up to your ideas. Research shows that exposing people to new ideas more often will make them more receptive over time. So, speak up and repeat yourself!

25 July, 2019 12:39 Share

Another useful strategy for making new ideas seem less controversial is to frame them in a familiar context. When the idea for the animated classic The Lion King was first pitched to Disney, producers were initially turned off by its dark storyline. But in a meeting between scriptwriters and Disney executives, CEO Michael Eisner and producer Maureen Donley turned things around by highlighting the film’s similarities to Shakespeare’s King Lear and Hamlet. This was enough to persuade the producers, who were much more enthusiastic once the unconventional storyline was tied to a common point of reference.

25 July, 2019 12:39 Share

The best collaborators are the ones that love to prove you wrong.

By throwing a minority opinion into the mix that differs from the two leading views, the consensus is disrupted. Group members are then pushed to assess the situation for themselves and not simply follow what others are thinking. This is a great strategy to break up groupthink and encourage everyone to share their real opinions.

25 July, 2019 12:41 Share

Groupthink occurs when people organized in groups prioritize avoiding conflict and reaching consensus over making the best choice possible. This concept, developed by Yale research psychologist Lester Irving Janis, is the underlying problem in poor team decision making. Another way to prevent groupthink hindering your own creativity is to surround yourself with people who constantly question your ideas.

25 July, 2019 12:42 Share

This creativity wouldn’t have been possible without the powerful group dynamic that emerged as a result of Kohlmann’s calculated decision making. He chose junior officers with a track record of facing discipline as a result of challenging authority. Though these officers all had their own backgrounds and objectives, uniting their disruptive mindset with a common goal created the perfect environment for creativity.

25 July, 2019 12:43 Share

Learn to disguise your ideas to get the supporters you need.

Though you might have a network of people who share the same goals and values as you, it’s no guarantee that they’ll support your ideas. If you want dependable allies, you need to win over your peers by hitting the right tone in your messaging. The trick is not to go over the top, but also to keep people interested

25 July, 2019 12:44 Share

Meredith Perry, the inventor of wireless power solutions for charging electronic equipment, received little support when she first presented her ideas to her physics professors and engineers. They all unanimously agreed that it was simply not possible at the time to charge electronic devices through waves passing through the air. So what did Perry do? She changed her tactics and used a Trojan horse.

25 July, 2019 12:45 Share

As we can see, it’s not enough simply to have creative ideas – you have to know how to find the right supporters and collaborators to make them a reality.

25 July, 2019 12:46 Share

Stress can be life-threatening.

When we’re stressed, our brain releases toxic hormones that damage our higher brain functions and consequently hamper our mental performance. Our higher brain, or the prefrontal cortex, is where we derive our human intelligence. Think of it as the executive office of the brain, where the big decisions are made.

21 December, 2019 03:58 Share

Your stress hormones, however, disable these high-order functions. As a consequence, your brain functionality is dumbed down, thus making you predisposed to making poor decisions or mental missteps. Furthermore, stress hormones sever the connections between your brain cells and shrink your brain’s neural networks. As a consequence, stress prevents your brain from making the new connections that are necessary for learning and creativity.

21 December, 2019 03:58 Share

stress hormones weaken your immune system as well as damage your heart and even the chromosomes within your cells’ nuclei! Consequently, we find that a myriad of illnesses are directly related to stress, such as heart diseases, strokes, cancer and diabetes, to name only a few of the thousands that exist. In fact, once you tally up all the stress-related diseases, you could consider stress to be the number one cause of death in the United States!

21 December, 2019 03:59 Share

Multipliers eliminate rather than add tasks to their schedule.

But the truth is that adding to your to-do list won’t multiply your time or your success. In fact, the path to productivity lies in eliminating activities from your life.

2 November, 2019 12:10 Share

human nature craves the satisfaction of achievement. Thus, we often engage in trivial activities simply to reassure ourselves that we’ve accomplished something. This explains the common yet pointless practice of completing a random activity and then adding it to our to-do list simply so we can mark it as done!

2 November, 2019 12:10 Share

Multipliers don’t focus on activities but on results. They know that success is not about the number of tasks you finish, but about how significant those tasks are.

2 November, 2019 12:13 Share

First, eliminate television. The typical American watches over 34 hours of TV a week. That’s almost as much time as a 9-to-5 job! Add up all those hours, and you’ll find that the average person spends a full nine years of their life in front of the box. So, unless you’ve already eliminated this unnecessary distraction, you can’t come into work complaining that you’re too busy.

2 November, 2019 12:13 Share

Next time you receive a meeting invite, ask yourself two key questions: Do I really have to know what will be shared in this meeting? And will I be called on to make decisions in this meeting? If the answer to both is no, then eliminate that pesky time-waster from your schedule.

2 November, 2019 12:14 Share

Multipliers invest money to make time.

the wealthy person thinks bigger. Instead, they consider that if they spend this $5 now, that’s money they can’t invest in something else. In other words, having a wealthy mindset means having an investment mindset.

2 November, 2019 12:14 Share

investment begets both time and money. If you didn’t spend the $5 on coffee today, you could invest that money at a moderate interest rate of, say, 8 percent. And, thanks to the magic of compound interest, in 30 years that $5 will become $30. Thus, a wealthy person understands that the true cost of that coffee is $35 – the $5 today and the missed opportunity to make $30 in the future. Would you really spend that much money on coffee?

2 November, 2019 12:15 Share

think of all the hours you spend repeating the same task. This could be sending out the same email to multiple customers or reentering information into a database. How much time could you save by automating all these repetitive processes? Probably a whole lot.

2 November, 2019 12:15 Share

So don’t waste any more of your future time. Instead, give yourself permission to automate today.

2 November, 2019 12:17 Share

Save time and money by delegating tasks.

Consider everything you do daily, from housework to spreadsheet updates. Now ask yourself: Could someone else do this for me? For most tasks, the answer is probably yes

2 November, 2019 12:18 Share

Let’s imagine, for example, that you spend five minutes of each working day completing a particular task. Once you decide to delegate that task, you’ll also devote 150 minutes of your time to teach someone how to do it. Why 150 minutes? Well, business school experts advise that for every minute a task takes you to finish, you should invest thirty minutes in training another person to complete it. This is known as the 30x rule.

2 November, 2019 12:18 Share

But now consider that the time you spend on that five-minute task works out as 1,250 minutes in a 250-day work year. So even if you spend 150 minutes on teaching, you’ll still save yourself 1,100 minutes annually.

2 November, 2019 12:20 Share

Many people believe they can’t afford to delegate. After all, no one’s going to work for free. But before you make that decision, remember that time is money, too. If, for example, you earn an annual salary of $100,000 a year, that’s a $40 hourly rate. Thus, delegating those 1,100 minutes will free up more of your time to spend it earning money instead. And provided the other person’s hourly rate is lower than yours, you’ll still turn a profit.

2 November, 2019 12:20 Share

instead. And provided the other person’s hourly rate is lower than yours, you’ll still turn a profit. So don’t try to do everything yourself. Use another pair of hands to multiply your time.

2 November, 2019 12:22 Share

Waiting until the last minute can save you time.

success is not just about taking action or how long you spend doing something. In life, just as in fishing, it’s also about waiting for the right moment. With this in mind, give yourself permission to procrastinate.

2 November, 2019 13:08 Share

The procrastination we’re talking about here isn’t putting off something you should be doing because you don’t want to. Instead, we’re talking about having the patience to wait until the optimal time to act. And as every multiplier knows, patience can save you a lot of time.

2 November, 2019 13:09 Share

This story highlights the key reason why patience is so important. It allows you to adapt to unpredictable changes, whether that’s a change in the weather, the stock market or a customer’s requirements. In our fast-paced modern world, things tend to change at breakneck speed. So don’t be scared of a little procrastination, and have the patience to wait and see.

2 November, 2019 13:10 Share

Multipliers focus all their concentration on their priorities.

During the harvest season, a farmer works a staggering 18 hours a day. Getting ill, tired or taking a career break isn’t an option. She has only a short window in which to pick her crops and secure her livelihood for the rest of the year. The rest of us can learn something from the harvesting farmer. Sometimes, your only option is to focus all your energy on the task at hand.

2 November, 2019 14:43 Share

Sometimes, your only option is to focus all your energy on the task at hand. So far, we’ve learned how to multiply your time by eliminating, automating, delegating and procrastinating. But if you can’t do any of those things, then the task must become your priority. When it comes to priorities, the best way to deal with them is to give them your full attention.

2 November, 2019 14:43 Share

Lastly, remember that you can only have one priority at a time. By its very definition, a priority is something that comes before everything else. So don’t start thinking about your family when you sit down to concentrate on a business problem. Although both these things might be your priorities, when you sit down to concentrate on something, it should be your primary focus. Otherwise, it’s not really a priority at all.

2 November, 2019 14:43 Share

Intermittent fasting boosts your metabolism and sharpens your focus.

The downside of alternate-day fasting is that it requires you to skip breakfast and refrain from eating until after 2:00 p.m., which is difficult when you have to work. The author wanted to find an alternative to alternate-day fasting, which is how he developed the Bulletproof Intermittent Fasting – you start the day with a coffee and don’t need anything more till the afternoon.

22 July, 2019 10:14 Share

So if you want something to go with your coffee and butter, it’s best to eat a combination of protein and fat, like poached eggs or smoked salmon and avocado. Eating fat and protein together prevents food cravings by giving your body extra energy to break proteins down into amino acids.

22 July, 2019 10:15 Share

Do high-intensity workouts at spaced-out intervals.

Another benefit of high-intensity training is that your body will produce more of the performance anti-aging hormone HGH, which your body makes to keep you looking young. High-intensity workouts are actually the best way to produce HGH.

22 July, 2019 10:16 Share

It’s critical that you give your body time to recover and rebuild muscle after you exercise, whether you’re weight lifting or doing high-intensity interval training. So rest from between two and ten days after each workout. Four to seven days is ideal.

22 July, 2019 10:16 Share

To have a more productive day, start by clearly laying out your intentions and goals.

First, clearly set out your intentions for each day and try to eliminate any activities you know tend to distract you from achieving them.

8 November, 2019 12:28 Share

Second, frame your goals in positive language. Goals framed positively can also be called approach goals – that is, goals that state the positive outcome you’re hoping to achieve, such as "make my product irresistible." The contrast to this would be an avoidance goal, like "stop losing customers."

8 November, 2019 12:30 Share

using approach goals improved their performance, whereas the opposite was true for those using avoidance goals.

8 November, 2019 12:34 Share

Manage overload, beat procrastination and stay focused by making a plan and scheduling enough breaks.

Crammed calendars and full to-do lists at work make it easy to feel overwhelmed. Let’s look at some of the ways to deal with these situations. First, the physical: lean back on a couch, exercise ball or even your office chair for a few minutes and focus on your breath until you’ve calmed down enough to think clearly.

8 November, 2019 12:36 Share

First, write down everything you need to do in the next few days or weeks. Mark the most important tasks and take one step toward completing that task today, no matter how small it is.

8 November, 2019 12:42 Share

What eventually worked for her was splitting the task into smaller steps, breaking it down into something like, "have a talk with my boss about my idea." Once she’d split up the big task into small, manageable steps, "election prep" became much less overwhelming and she was able to tackle it.

8 November, 2019 12:43 Share

When famed psychologist K. Anders Ericsson studied people at the top of their fields, like world-class violinists, athletes and chess players, he found that they also practiced in blocks of 90 minutes or less, with short breaks in between.

8 November, 2019 12:44 Share

Focus inevitably wavers throughout the day and needs to be recharged periodically. Over the course of 90 minutes, our brains go from highly focused to scatterbrained, which is why we end up doodling or playing on our phone if we’re forced to concentrate for longer.

8 November, 2019 12:44 Share

Surround yourself with pleasant relationships by building rapport with the people you meet and resolving tensions directly.

First, build rapport when you interact with someone at work. Don’t just awkwardly slip by them in the office kitchen when you’re both reaching for a mug – engage them and ask open questions like, "how are you spending your holidays?"

8 November, 2019 12:44 Share

Let’s take a look at a study conducted by sociologist Lauren Rivera from Northwestern University, where she asked recruiting managers about their most recent hires. She found that 74 percent admitted feeling some similarities with their new hires, whether it was based on a shared interest in sports, technology or something else. This indicates that managers prefer to hire and be around people with whom they share commonalities.

8 November, 2019 12:44 Share

For example, let’s take Simon, a real estate advisor who was annoyed with a client who kept promising him specific assignments but rarely followed through with them when the time came. Instead of reproaching his client or bottling up his frustration, Simon was up-front and communicated how he felt: "I’m confused because I received positive feedback from you, but didn’t get the project. Would you mind telling me what you were dissatisfied with and what I can do better next time?"

8 November, 2019 12:45 Share

This approach helped his client understand him without feeling attacked and getting defensive, and they ended up having an in-depth discussion about what the client was looking for.

8 November, 2019 12:45 Share

Address decisions systematically by using thinking routines and breaking down complex problems into an issue tree.

First, develop a versatile routine that helps you reach sound decisions in all manner of situations. The routine might be as simple as asking yourself a set of questions like, "what are the alternatives and potential disadvantages to this choice?" or "what would the worst-case scenario be, and what are some of my options if that happens?"

8 November, 2019 12:46 Share

Peggy is an advertising art director who developed a routine that works for her. Her trick is to always invite colleagues to give her feedback about her current work. While she doesn’t agree with them all the time, their input often helps her catch potential problems in her campaigns, thereby improving her decisions.

8 November, 2019 12:47 Share

There are often competing truths about people, events or things, all of which can be true at once.

The truth, then, is more often plural than singular. When you hear something asserted as the truth, pause and reflect on the wider picture before passing judgment.

7 September, 2019 08:40 Share

Forecasting the economy is so difficult because it’s a complicated and dynamic system.

And not only the state of the economy is affected by a myriad of factors: the very basics of forecasting are also constantly in flux.

12 August, 2019 08:46 Share

Statistics-based forecasting alone is not enough – human analysis is still needed.

But many people don’t realize this. Instead, they try to get more and more information and economic variables to draw predictions from, believing that it will make predictions more accurate when, in fact, all it does is increase the amount of useless information – or noise – which in turn makes it harder to spot useful information – or the signal – hidden within.

12 August, 2019 08:49 Share

Many experts failed to predict the 2008 collapse of the US housing bubble.

Since CDOs were a completely new kind of financial instrument, agencies had to rely solely on statistical models based on the risk of individual mortgages defaulting. Unfortunately, this neglected the possibility of a large-scale housing crash which could bring down prices across the board.

12 August, 2019 08:50 Share

The second failure was committed by rating agencies regarding the riskiness of financial instruments called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which consisted of a bundle of mortgage debts. The idea was that, as homeowners made payments on their mortgages, investors who held CDOs would earn profits.

12 August, 2019 08:51 Share

Cautious, meticulous and diverse predictions tend to be better than brash ones.

Hedgehogs are typically brash and confident, claiming that they have discovered big, governing principles that the world adheres to: think Sigmund Freud and the unconscious. Foxes, however, tend to be more cautious and meticulous, contemplating matters from various perspectives and carefully weighing the pros and cons. They are also more likely than hedgehogs to rely on empirical evidence and data, willingly discarding their own ideologies and preconceptions and letting the data speak for itself.

12 August, 2019 08:56 Share

Stock markets are hard to beat because they tend to be efficient.

For one, it’s hard for one person to predict the behavior of the market well. In fact, one study showed that when seventy economists made stock market forecasts over a multi-year period, their aggregate prediction was always better than any individual’s.

12 August, 2019 11:55 Share

Why is beating the market so difficult? Because the stock market is usually very efficient, i.e., there are no easy, sure-fire wins to be had. Most trades are made by very smart, capable people on behalf of large financial institutions which have huge amounts of data and expertise at their disposal. This means that if a stock is over- or underpriced, the market will correct that very quickly.

12 August, 2019 11:56 Share

Stock market bubbles can be predicted by looking at stock prices and the P/E ratio.

What’s more, all their colleagues do the same, so it’s unlikely they’ll be singled out and fired. In fact, after the last three big crashes on Wall Street, only about 20 percent of staff lost their jobs, so there’s an 80 percent chance traders will keep their jobs even if they ignore the bubble.

12 August, 2019 11:58 Share